> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://votes-docs.decisiondeskhq.com/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://votes-docs.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast-methodology.md).

# Forecast Methodology

How DDHQ forecasts the 2026 congressional and gubernatorial elections

DDHQ publishes two probabilistic election forecasts for the 2026 cycle. Both apply the same three-layer blending architecture — structural fundamentals, aggregate public polling, and prediction market prices — adapted to the data available for each office.

| Forecast                                                                                                    | Races covered                       |
| ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------- |
| [2026 Congressional Forecast Methodology](/forecast-methodology/2026-congressional-forecast-methodology.md) | U.S. House and Senate               |
| [2026 Governor Forecast Methodology](/forecast-methodology/2026-governor-forecast-methodology.md)           | 36 governorships on the 2026 ballot |

Each page documents its own data sources, model specification, probability estimation, seat-distribution simulation, and limitations.