Forecast Methodology
How DDHQ forecasts the 2026 congressional and gubernatorial elections
DDHQ publishes two probabilistic election forecasts for the 2026 cycle. Both apply the same three-layer blending architecture — structural fundamentals, aggregate public polling, and prediction market prices — adapted to the data available for each office.
Forecast
Races covered
U.S. House and Senate
36 governorships on the 2026 ballot
Each page documents its own data sources, model specification, probability estimation, seat-distribution simulation, and limitations.