DDHQ Dictionary

Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP). CVAP is an estimate provided directly by the Census and is intended to include all United States citizens who are at least 18 years old. Often, you'll find us referencing CVAP for a specific demographic, which means the estimated citizen voting age population for that group.

Estimated Votes Remaining (EVR). When votes are reported on election night, EVR represents the number of votes we estimate remain to be counted. After all votes have been reported and the election is certified, the ability to select EVR will disappear because the estimated votes remaining will be zero.

Margin. When selecting the margin map, you're looking at a symbol map that shows the raw vote margin for one candidate over another. For example, in the margin map for the 2024 Colorado Presidential election, Denver County has the largest circle because it represents the largest raw vote margin. Harris beat Trump here by 203,869 votes. All other circles are created relative to this raw vote margin.

Polling Average. A polling average is a statistical measure that combines the results of multiple public opinion polls on the same race, issue, or candidate to produce a single, more stable estimate of support.

Instead of relying on a single poll — which may be affected by sampling error, methodological differences, or timing — a polling average smooths out those variations by aggregating multiple polls. Some polling averages simply calculate a straight (unweighted) mean, while others weight polls based on factors like sample size, recency, or historical accuracy.

The purpose of a polling average is to reduce noise and provide a clearer picture of the overall trend in public opinion at a given point in time. You can find all DDHQ polling averages by visiting the 'Polling' navigation or by clicking this link.

Swing. The change in a candidate's or political party's vote share between two elections is called the 'swing', typically expressed in percentage points.

Swing measures the shift in support from one side to the other. It is often calculated as the net change in margin between two candidates or parties from one election to the next. For example, if Party A won by 6 percentage points in the previous election but loses by 2 points in the current election, that represents an 8-point swing toward Party B.

Swing is commonly used to analyze electoral trends, shifts in voter behavior, and the competitiveness of districts over time.

In the example below, the swing map shows changes in performance from the 2006 Illinois Governor's race compared to the 2010 race. Even though Republican Bill Brady notched massive gains in almost every IL county, he only managed a +3.05% swing margin in Cook, which ultimately allowed Democrat Pat Quinn to sneak by.

Volume. This refers to the total number of shares or contracts traded in a specific market over a given period of time. For prediction markets, volume represents the total dollar amount of shares bought and sold and is cumulative from the first day the market opened.

Higher volume generally indicates greater liquidity and participant engagement, allowing traders to buy or sell shares more easily without significantly moving the price. Lower volume, by contrast, may signal thinner trading activity, where individual trades can have a larger impact on market prices.

Vote Target. Vote targets identify who is over- or underperforming the vote share needed to win a race in a specific county.

We're going to use the 2024 DE Presidential election as our example because it has just three counties and provides a simple view of how vote targets work. The vertical yellow on the bar chart represents the target each candidate needs to hit for the race to be considered 50/50. In Kent County, this meant Donald Trump winning by a 15% margin over Kamala Harris.

The actual result was Harris winning the county by two (represented by the yellow circle). This means that Harris overperformed the target by 17 points and was likely well on her way to winning the state. You'll also notice in New Castle and Sussex counties that the actual result was to the left of the target, meaning that in all three counties, Harris won more than enough of the vote to win the race.

Vote targets are created using a blend of past election performance for both Presidential and Statewide elections and expected turnout.

It's important to note that a vote target is most effective when all the votes in a county have been reported. Vote shares often shift between vote types, and vote targets are intended to be useful when a county says it has no more votes left to report.